A new report examining Thailand’s potential transition from animal to plant proteins reveals that replacing 50% of animal proteins with plant alternatives by 2050 could reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 78% while creating 1.15 million net jobs.
The study by Luo and Blaszak analyzes three scenarios for Thailand’s protein sector: business-as-usual continuation of animal-based production, a 30% plant protein replacement, and a 50% replacement by 2050. Thailand represents a significant case study as the only net protein exporter in Asia, with 30% of its labor force and 18% of exports coming from agriculture in 2022.
The country’s meat and seafood production increased over 80% between 1990 and 2020, with projections showing continued growth of approximately 30% by 2050. Domestic consumption is expected to reach 55.6 kilograms per capita annually by 2050, highlighting the scale of potential transformation.
Land use reductions offer environmental benefits
Under current production patterns, land used for animal feed would expand 42% to 6.15 million hectares by 2050. The 30% plant protein scenario would limit this increase to 13%, reaching 4.85 million hectares. However, the 50% scenario would actually reduce land use by 7% to 3.98 million hectares, freeing agricultural land for other purposes.
The land use implications extend beyond Thailand’s borders, as approximately 60% of animal feed is imported. Over 90% of Thailand’s soybeans originate from South America, where soybean cultivation contributed to at least eight million hectares of deforestation between 2000 and 2015, according to the report.
Climate targets require plant protein integration
Thailand’s agricultural emissions decreased slightly from 42 to 39 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (Mt CO2e) between 1990 and 2020, primarily due to reduced beef production. However, the business-as-usual scenario projects emissions increasing 15% to 45 Mt CO2e by 2050, exceeding the report’s science-based climate safety threshold of 11 Mt CO2e by more than four times.
The report modeled a “best-case” mitigation scenario assuming maximum sustainability efforts in meat and seafood production without changing protein sources. This approach, including deforestation prevention, clean energy adoption, methane reduction, and food waste minimization, would lower emissions to approximately 17 Mt CO2e by 2050—still above the climate safety threshold.
Combining these mitigation measures with plant protein diversification produces different outcomes. The 30% scenario achieves 12 Mt CO2e, while only the 50% scenario reaches 9 Mt CO2e, meeting the climate safety threshold. The report concludes that plant protein diversification is necessary for Thailand to operate within safe emissions limits.
Economic benefits include job creation and export opportunities
The report projects that agricultural employment would naturally decline under business-as-usual conditions due to rural-urban migration and industrialization, with 1.4 million people currently working directly in animal production.
Plant protein transition would reverse this trend, focusing on food-grade soybean production as Thailand’s most prevalent plant-based protein. The 30% scenario would create an additional 1.23 million jobs by 2050, while the 50% scenario would generate 1.15 million net jobs. These projections assume smallholder farming rather than large-scale corporate operations.
Economic analysis shows gross value added from meat and seafood sectors totaling just over 550 billion baht in 2020, projected to reach 650 billion baht by 2050 under current conditions. The 30% plant protein scenario would add over 700 billion baht by 2050, while the 50% scenario would contribute approximately 750 billion baht, representing cumulative gains of 1.3 trillion baht over two decades.
The report recommends government tax incentives for plant-based foods, institutional procurement of plant-rich meals, financial support for farmer transitions, prominent retail placement of plant proteins, competitive pricing strategies, and increased research and development investment to support the transition.
