Food waste will cost the global retail supply chain $540 billion in 2026, up from $526 billion in 2025, according to research published by materials science company Avery Dennison.
The “Making the Invisible Visible: Unlocking the Hidden Value of Food Waste to Drive Growth and Profitability” report found that food waste costs are equivalent to 33% of total revenues in the food retail supply chain annually from post-farm operations through point-of-sale.
Research involving 3,500 global food retailers and supply chain leaders revealed that 61% of businesses lack full visibility into where food waste occurs across their operations. Limited influence over waste-intensive areas of the supply chain presents a common challenge requiring targeted innovation and cross-supply chain collaboration, according to the report.
“Food waste has become an accepted cost of doing business, but it doesn’t have to be,” said Julie Vargas, vice president and general manager of enterprise intelligent labels growth at Avery Dennison. “Innovation exists today to help overcome the complexity of food waste by unlocking new possibilities and transforming a historic operating cost into measurable value.”
Meat waste projected at $94 billion annually
Meat emerged as the most challenging category for waste management, with 72% of supply chain leaders citing it as their biggest challenge. Economic modeling forecasts meat waste to amount to $94 billion in lost output across the global supply chain in 2026, representing nearly one-fifth of total cumulative losses. Fresh produce waste follows closely at $88 billion.
When asked to identify the three most difficult categories for waste, half of respondents pointed to meat, 45% cited produce and 28% mentioned baked goods. The high unit cost of meat in grocery and food retail means that even small reductions in waste can deliver significant financial gains.
Over half of business leaders surveyed indicated that inventory management and overstocking contribute significantly to food waste within their operations. Addressing this challenge will require solutions including item-level inventory visibility, demand forecasting and real-time shelf-life management.
Transit and visibility gaps compound losses
Transit remains a major blind spot across the supply chain, with 56% of companies reporting they do not have a clear understanding of how much food waste occurs during transportation. This lack of visibility in transit operations connects across different perishable categories.
Almost three-quarters of retailers reported that inflation is making it harder than ever to predict demand for fresh meat, while 73% reported rising consumer demand for smaller meat portions or alternatives. Two-thirds of businesses predicted that meat waste during the holiday season would noticeably reduce their margins.
“From transit to shelf, blind spots are silently eroding margins,” Vargas said. “With the right innovation, we can turn this loss into measurable value and shift the conversation on food waste, from being purely seen as a sustainability issue, into a business critical one.”
Economic volatility, poor adaptability to market-related shocks and difficulty adjusting to shifting consumer demands are exacerbating systemic food waste issues for retailers, according to the report findings.
Industry falling short of 2030 targets
If current trends continue, the cumulative cost of food waste from 2025 to 2030 is expected to reach $3.4 trillion, coinciding with the 2030 deadline for the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 12.3, which aims to halve global food waste.
Despite this goal, over a quarter of leaders surveyed said they would not meet the 2030 deadline. The research suggests that without significant intervention, the food retail industry will miss established waste reduction targets while continuing to absorb substantial economic losses.
Michael Colarossi, vice president and head of enterprise sustainability at Avery Dennison, emphasized the business opportunity in addressing food waste. “For too long, food waste has been positioned almost exclusively as a sustainability and societal issue. We must recognize it as the business opportunity it truly is,” Colarossi said.
Over seven in ten business leaders surveyed indicated they see tackling food waste as a growth opportunity. “The $540 billion in lost value should be a clear call to action for the food retail supply chain to cut waste and boost efficiencies,” Colarossi said. “Only by uncovering the blind spots in the chain can we take meaningful steps to reduce loss, build resilience and create lasting value for both businesses and the planet.”
