Food companies relying on nitrogen-intensive supply chains may face significant regulatory and sourcing challenges in the coming years, according to a new report that calls for a 42% reduction in agricultural nitrogen inputs by 2050. The report, “Exhausted Earth: How corporations broke the nitrogen cycle and how to fix it,” released by charity Foodrise, argues for government intervention to reduce fertilizer production amid growing concerns about environmental impacts.
The recommendations come as the UK government announced its partnership with Brazil to tackle nitrogen fertilizers’ environmental impact at COP30. The Belém Declaration on Fertilisers urges action to “enhance nutrient use efficiency and reduce emissions from fertiliser production as a key pathway to delivering climate goals, protecting and restoring nature, and ensuring food security for all in an equitable and just manner.”
For food industry professionals, the report signals potential policy shifts that could affect input costs, supply chain dynamics, and sourcing strategies — particularly for companies in the meat, dairy, and animal feed sectors where nitrogen fertilizers play a crucial role in feed crop production.
Synthetic nitrogen fertilizers are manufactured by companies including Yara, CF Industries, and Nutrien. Surplus nitrogen from agriculture currently exceeds sustainable levels by more than double what the planet can sustain, according to the report. Nitrogen fertilizers release nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas that is 300 times more powerful than carbon dioxide in trapping heat over a 100-year period.
Supply chain and cost implications
The connection between fertilizers and food production creates direct implications for supply chains: fossil fuels are used to make nitrogen fertilizers, which are then used to grow feed for meat and dairy production. Any regulatory constraints on fertilizer production or use would likely affect feed crop availability and costs, potentially requiring companies to adjust sourcing strategies or production models.
Based on the EAT-Lancet report, Foodrise calculates that agricultural nitrogen inputs need to be cut by 42% by 2050 to meet planetary boundaries. However, nitrogen fertilizer production has increased by 20% since 2009, when scientists first warned that Earth’s nitrogen boundary had been breached.
The top three nitrogen fertilizer companies — Yara, CF Industries, and Nutrien — accounted for 34.6% of global nitrogen fertilizer production in 2022, generating nearly 40 billion dollars from nitrogen fertilizer sales. The report examines what it describes as industry lobbying efforts and funding of research that presents fertilizers favorably.
“Nitrogen fertilizer corporations must become as infamous and publicly shamed as the fossil fuel giants for reaping billions in profits at the expense of public health, biodiversity and the climate,” said Carina Millstone, Executive Director at Foodrise. “Food system transformation will require significant political leadership to tackle the greatest barrier to change: corporate control.”
Regulatory landscape shifts
The nitrogen fertilizer lobby has expanded its presence at United Nations climate negotiations, with triple the number of delegates from major nitrogen producers attending COP30 compared to COP26, according to the report. This increased presence suggests the industry anticipates policy discussions that could affect operations.
For food companies, the report’s recommendations signal areas where regulatory pressure may intensify. Foodrise calls for government reduction targets for nitrogen production aligned with EAT-Lancet recommendations, prioritizing farmer input over corporate lobbying in agricultural policy, strengthening international cooperation for nitrogen reduction, and regulating the nitrogen fertilizer industry to reduce production.
Million Belay, General Coordinator at Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa, stated: “Synthetic nitrogen fertilizers are devastating Africa’s soils and waters, accelerating climate breakdown, and trapping farmers in a cycle of dependence and debt. Governments and public banks must stop bankrolling harmful fertilizer expansion and invest instead in farmer-led agroecology.”
The report argues that implementing the EAT-Lancet Commission’s findings on sustainable food systems would require shifts in production practices, particularly in feed-intensive animal agriculture systems. Companies with supply chains dependent on conventional feed crops may need to evaluate alternative sourcing strategies or production models that require fewer nitrogen inputs.
